多元行動者觀點下的政治史研究:其二之戰後台灣政治史

  本文再從多元行動者的觀點探討政治史,此次的課題是戰後台灣政治史。
  如第一篇所論,政治支配是多元行動者之間的結盟與對抗,統治集團也不可能無媒介的支配地域社會。這樣的觀點也運用到戰後台灣政治史的研究。若我們從多元行動者的觀點就可以推測究竟是誰(黨派)掌握了台灣,以及戰後台灣的政治史變遷。
  戰後台灣的政治集團至少可以分成三派,外省集團,地方派系,台籍菁英。
  其一,外省人權貴集團是1949年因為國民黨在中國失去政權而一批被稱為外省人的官員、軍人與其他類型人民移入台灣而形成。外省人若作為一個族群,包含複數的階級,本文稱其中的權貴者為「外省集團」。
  其二,地方派系是指1949年前其家族即為台灣地域社會的政治領袖所形成的集團。
  從多元行動者的分析角度分析日本殖民政府對台灣的支配,可想而知,日本殖民集團在台灣的支配也不會是無媒介,他們既鎮壓了在地的台籍菁英,也與後者合作。這類台籍菁英也在日本殖民體制中壯大,實質支配台灣社會。其後國民黨所能接收的台灣也只能是日本殖民者所占據的政治與經濟部門,而地域社會仍控制在這一批台籍菁英或說是地方派系手中。
  二二八事件作為一個重大歷史事件,為台灣的政治社會結構創造了新型態。在原「外省集團vs.本省集團」的結構中,本省集團分裂為二。一派是二二八事件後與國民黨合作的地方派系,無論是國民黨選擇了他們或是他們選擇國民黨。在意識型態上,這一派也採與國民黨相同的立場,即所謂認同中國,或說親中。本文稱此集團為地方派系。
  相對之下,另一派的主要性格是對抗國民黨統治。這一派的淵源可溯及在日本殖民時代皇民化運動中的受益者。這批人中有二二八事件主事者與其後白色恐怖時期的受難者。在政治立場上,這個集團與1949年後的國民黨對抗,而在意識型態上則是親日、反中以至主張台獨。我不知道如何稱這一集團,在本文就暫稱作台籍菁英,也就是本文所說的第三個行動者。
  外省集團在很長的一段期間,是台灣最有勢力的政治集團。這是台灣史的常識了,不用我多說。但是該集團的權力也只能控制公部門。至於現代國家的公部門如何掌握民間則另當別論。無論如何,民間的社會與經濟部門仍掌握在地方派系與台籍菁英手中。二二八事件與其後的「清鄉」、「白色恐怖」等事件改變了地域社會統治階級內部家族地位升降,但沒有消滅該集團的勢力。其後的外省集團仍必須與這些地方派系合作,至多拉甲派打乙派。
  對於外省集團的理解,還有一點我必須提出的。許多政論甚至研究將國民黨治台說成是殖民,若從殖民作為一種支配類型的角度而言,這是錯的。我們談殖民,必有殖民母國。英國殖民香港,英國是港英政府的殖民母國。日本殖民台灣,日本是台灣政府的殖民母國。而1949年後的在台外省集團卻沒有殖民母國。中國充其量是這些人的心靈母國。對於外省集團來說,慘的是對岸的中國是想跨海追殺他們。戰前在台灣的日本人的人數雖少,但有強大的母國撐腰。相對之下,外省集團在形勢比人強的情況下勢必與地方派系合作。
  1949年後來台的外省人人數究竟多少,我無法斷定。我推測外省權貴(政府高級官員、將領、大商人)的比例應低於人口的百分之五。而且我再強調一次,外省集團若有母國中國,也是追殺他們的中共。國民黨政權的確以武力為後盾,但不是以武力支配台灣。這是政治史的一般法則。更何況,台灣存在著強有力的社會勢力。
  我們也不要忘了外省集團在台灣建立政權的另一個對手是美國,美國是另一個介入台灣政治的行動者。順應戰後東亞局勢的變遷,外省集團與美國聯盟。美國的支持對於外省集團而言是致命的關鍵。為了得到美國支持,不管真心還是假意,國民黨政權總要宣稱台灣是「自由中國」以取得美國的支援。「自由中國」的理據是民主選舉。國民黨推行有限度的民主選舉。在一段期間內,縣以下層級地方政府首長、省以下的民意機構代表是由選舉產生。外省集團即使當時權力再大,也無法複製出人來參與地方層級的選舉。若國民黨要在地方上推出候選人,其人選肯定是絕大多數由地方派系出身者擔任。戰後台灣政治的主流是外省集團就與地方派系的本省人在政治上積極合作。外省集團既位於地方派系的上層而出現所謂侍從關係,又寄生於地方派系,也可以說是共生。
  1970年代以後,即蔣經國時代,台灣政治改革的主軸是外省集團與地方派系進一步合作,並逐漸取得了平等的狀態,這表現在中央民意代表選舉向地方派系開放,中央部會首長也廣納地方派系出身者。1980年代以後,台灣的所謂「經濟奇蹟」的受益者是台灣社會,以集團論主要是地方派系與台籍藉英。這二個集團的經濟力的提升也增加了他們對抗外省集團的實力,也是造成其後集團權力此消彼漲的主因。
  而至1980年代,就是蔣經國時代的後期,本文所稱的台籍菁英集團壯大。這一集團在一段期間內被稱為黨外,即相對於「外省集團+地方派系」所組成的國民黨。台籍菁英最大的反對國民黨理論是「神聖的公民社會對抗不義的國家」。台籍菁英將自身塑造成代表這個神聖的公民社會,而國民黨是這個不義的國家。其主要的政治訴求是全面開放政治首長、民意代表由普選產生。從政治鬥爭的角度來看,這是一個簡單的盤算,只要台灣能全面開放普選,勝選者一定絕大多數是本省人,而宣稱代表台灣的台籍菁英一定是占最大比例。
  1980年代中期,外省集團領袖蔣經國所主導的政治改革大幅改變了台灣的政治生態。其策略有二。一是推行民主化與自由化政策。二是推動兩岸和平,開始和中共和解。對於前者,蔣經國所代表國民黨在面對風起雲湧的反對運動,決定大幅開放政權以回應。從多元行動者的角度說,就是外省集團決定更大幅度的將政權開放給地方派系,甚至部分政治的優位讓給地方派系。我們也可以說這是地方派系的「中央化」並開始進入中央政府的層級。
  民主化與自由化改革為台灣建立了新制度。只要是作為制度,則不同行動者都可以玩它。地方派系可以玩,台籍菁英也可以玩,外省集團也可以玩。其發展有三條線索。一,1986年民主進步黨成立是這個台籍菁英玩這個民主制度的代表事件。其後民進黨在選舉中的勝利,反映了台籍菁英的壯大。2000年陳水扁當選總統是里程碑。二,地方派系進一步接收了國民黨,這也是我們說的國民黨的本土化。三,不滿國民黨本土化的外省集團的部分成員也試圖利用民主選舉以壯大或保存勢力。1993年所成立的新黨是代表事件。
  從1980年代國民黨推動民主化與自由化之後,外省集團大勢已去,地方派系一步步接管了國民黨。外省集團要敗部復活的唯一可能是連結中國。這個事實會不會發生不由歷史結構決定,而是由行動者決定,結果是沒有發生。於是外省集團作為一個集團已無足輕重,頂多就是寄生在地方派系中。1996年李登輝當選總統後,台灣的政治鬥爭的主軸轉移到地方派系對台籍菁英。對於臺籍菁英而言,這是轉機也是危機。危機在於過去鬥爭國民黨的民主理論已失效。一方面經過國民黨改革,尤其是在1996年總統直選後,就政治制度而言,表現在普選制度上,台灣已民主化。台籍菁英在鬥爭以地方派系掛帥的國民黨時,無法只打普選之民主牌。所以台籍菁英只有提出新的政治論述,如1990年代的反「黑金」的民主理念以打擊地方派系,更重要的是提出本土政權理論,或說是台獨。
  台獨理論在戰前、戰後一直都有,當然不是始自1990年代。但這個時代,對於台灣的政治而言,出現另一個重大變數,也是新的行動者加入,就是中國。是歷史的弔詭吧,外省集團既強調自己是中國,又長期主導台灣以軍事對抗中國,反而阻斷了中國(共產中國)這個行動者支配台灣,甚至是影響台灣,也因此使台灣成為實際上的國家(state)。然而,蔣經國所主導的兩岸和平政策則改變了現狀,使中國這個行動者加入了台灣的政局,而產生新的變數與新的政治脈絡。台獨運動從這時期才遇到它真正的對手中國。蔣經國的民主化運動弱化了外省集團的權力,外省集團連國民黨這樣的政治組織都失去了,其實已無足輕重。在普選的制度下,這約百分之七的外省人要支持誰對政治大局而言不重要。因此台灣的政治鬥爭早已不是建立在「本省人vs.外省人」的結構上。然而,台獨的政治運動仍在其理論上排斥、羞辱外省人,這些言行其實已不是以在台外省人為主要對象,而是在對抗台獨運動者所設想的「台灣人+中國關係」。因為他們清楚的知道最大的敵人是中國。當中國行動者加入戰局,無論是外省集團與地方派系,只要成功的與中國聯盟,掌握台灣政治的可能性甚高。當然,中國自身作為行動者也有其想法與作法,只是本文不分析中國方面是如何想。
  因此,台籍菁英所主導的台獨運動必須消滅這種聯盟中國的可能性,才可能在台灣制霸。也因此一波消滅「中國關係」的運動展開,就是我們說的「反中」。「中國關係」包括中國歷史、文化、商品,以至陸客、陸生等。於是我們看到台灣不斷上演反中的政治秀。只是,就理論效力而言,不能只倡導反對而沒有正面的論述。當年黨外反對國民黨時,曾倡導自由主義、公民社會的理論,「反中」也須創造它的理論。這些理論就是本土化與日本認同。
  本土化是在學理的基礎上創造「本土vs.外來」的世界觀。本土與外來二者是截然區分,無論是實然或應然。本土是集合所有好的價值,如真善美。而外來則是假惡醜。同樣是熊,台灣黑熊也優於中國貓熊。按照這個理論,作為本土的一分子,應維持本土「自然而然」所生出的秩序。任何因外來因素而導致的本土改變,這個理論都希望人們不假思索將之視為惡。這個具有哲學層次的政論巧妙的解釋了台灣如何作為一個美好價值的存在,而中國則作為主要外來者是如何邪惡。若說本土化運動是排斥外省人是不對的,因為外省人在選舉上早已無關輕重,早就不是台獨運動的主要敵人。本土化運動是要打擊所有台灣人(本省人、外省人、原住民、新住民等)中有中國關係者。因此不管是那一類人,只要被認定要保有中國關係者,這個運動就會稱之為「外來種」或「支那賤畜」。本土理論其實是一個對外的理論,是要以島內為戰場打擊行動者之中國。因此這個運動是召喚台灣人抗拒任何來自於中國的介入或影響。三一八事件的訴求「反服貿」是代表事件,它是台灣的新生世代基於本土化信念抗拒任何來自中國的事物與反對既有的秩序的任何改變。
  作為歷史學研究,日本認同則是更有趣的現象。分析歷史原因,可分遠因、近因與導火線。雖然我們歷史學對於這樣的機械式分析自我解嘲,其實在講大歷史時還是有用的。台灣的日本認同的遠因可以推到戰前的日本殖民政府的殖民經驗,尤其是皇民化運動的作用。本文所指稱的台灣菁英更是皇民化運動的協力者。近因是戰後台日之間的友好所促成的台日之間的人與物的密切交流,尤其在國民黨控制力衰退後的八十年代後期。另一方面,日本是東亞近代化的最前沿,日本文化是東亞流行文化的主流。當代日本文化影響台灣,以至造成台灣一波的「哈日」風,是完全可以理解的。而我要談的則是導火線之這十多年來的政治鬥爭。
  我所謂的日本認同,重點在認同。日本認同運動肯定會帶來人們對於日本文化的喜好進而帶動日本文化的流行。但這不是重點。日本認同運動的重點是在「哈日」的基礎上,使台灣人認為自己有日本關係,而區別於中國。中國有二類,一是對岸的中國,二是台灣人的鄰居中有中國關係者。日本認同運動同時創造出一套論述以說明日本是好的,中國則是不好的。由台籍菁英所發動的這場日本認同運動作為政治策略,像一把二面的劍,同時砍向二個行動者,對岸的中國與島內的地方派系。關於對抗中國這一點容易理解,我就不多說了。這個運動的另一方面是對抗地方派系。要主導台獨建國,當然要收編地方派系,可是同時,台籍菁英卻又要樹立在本省人中的優位性。如果過去外省集團的策略是宣告所有台灣人都是中國人,而外省人是中國人的優位者,如今台籍菁英的策略則是宣告大多數台灣人都有日本關係,而台籍菁英居這些人中的優位者。即外省集團訴諸中國性,而台籍菁英訴諸日本性。
  歷史給了本省人二重性格。一是漢人,二是日本人。漢人的身分來自他們是近代從中國移民而來,可以在中國找到移民前的原鄉。日本人的身分則來自於其本人或父祖曾因日本統治而為日本人。這層的歷史因素使得本省人的認同是可以操作的。戰後,國民黨曾成功的將漢人的身分轉移為中國人。而配合台獨的這一波的日本認同運動則是操作本省人因為歷史上的日本關係而認同自己是非中國人之台灣人。 這個階段台獨運動的重點是在否定「既是台灣人又是中國人」的論述,日本認同則是阻斷台灣人與中國人的聯結的一帖良方。其策略是訴諸本省人所共有的日本關係,而使人們相信台灣人的文化淵源與歷史經驗是與日本聯繫,至於中國關係說則說成是外來殖民者的國民黨強加諸人們身上的。
  既然中國認同與日本認同都以歷史經驗為資源,讓台灣人相信何者為真就是成敗關鍵。於是歷史教科書是兵家必爭,因此才有沸沸揚揚的「課綱微調」事件。這十年來,藉由各種文化、教育界與媒體的動員,日本認同的共識被成功創造出來。
  若要舉幾個事例來說明台灣近期的認同日本運動,就是近年來深受讚揚、票房大賣座的二部電影,KANO與「灣生回家」。KANO的宣傳與影評都認為這部戲在表現台灣的「族群融合」或說「超越族群藩籬」,其族群是日本人、本省人與原住民,就是沒有外省人。也就是說,恩恩怨怨不論,本省人可以與日本人「族群融合」及彼此沒有「籓籬」。就歷史事實而言,作為KANO的故事背景之1930年代的確沒有外省人。但會令這種多人感動的也正是這個時代的歷史背景是日本人取代了外省人。也正是這個沒有外省人而是日本人與本省人、原住民攜手擁抱的場景感動了多少台灣人。另外,「灣生回家」這部戲會如此感人熱淚,因為它是在一片認同日本的時代氛圍中,講老人歸鄉的故事。這個老人是原日本殖民者,而鄉是我們台灣。觀眾會認為原來我們台灣曾經如此日本,而這種共有的血脈藉著日本人歸鄉而可以重新流傳。
  最後,若要問我,未來呢?歷史學家會跟你說不知道,因為許多變因是來自於歷史事件,歷史學家無法推測歷史事件。但我還是從多元行動者的立場分析,作點鑑往知來的事。
  從1949年以來,台灣政治界的五大行動者是內部的外省集團、地方派系、台籍菁英,與外部的美國與中國。其中外省集團早已無足輕重,退出歷史舞台。目前的這個時代是台籍菁英所主導的台獨運動因為獲得地方派系的支持而在台灣政治界大勝全勝,「台灣人+日本關係」的認同也蔚為主流。而下一個時代則主要觀察地方派系與中國的動向。由於中國已是世界強權,經濟力更是鋪天蓋地的影響台灣。歷史學告訴我們可以「馬上得天下」,但不能「馬上治天下」。也就是,可以以「力」得天下,但任何的統治都必須講「理」。但歷史經驗的另一面是告訴我們,時代主要是由力所塑造的,所謂形勢比人強。未來地方派系若因為經濟等原因而選擇與中國聯盟則是在力的軌道上。若此發展成真,則親中的地方派系可能凌駕台籍菁英而主導台灣政局。且這個因力所造成的地方派系與中國的連結,不難說出道理。如前所述,本省人的歷史有二面性,即漢人與日本人。下一個時代,台灣政治領導者若要喚回漢人的歷史記憶,而強調台灣人的中國關係,一點都不難。只是歷史上的行動者也不是一成不變。新時代會出現新的行動者,進而改變政治結構。如近年來所出現的鄉民、網民,儼然就是另一個政治集團,或說是政治行動者。我們也可以稱之為「網路左翼」。他們已不是政治上的弱勢。這群人的動態也勢必影響台灣的下一個時代。

About 甘懷真

現職:臺灣大學歷史學系教授 研究領域:中國古代史、禮制與皇帝制度研究、東亞古代政治史 通訊處:臺灣大學歷史學系 臺北市106羅斯福路4段1號 電話:886-2-33664710
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